Since the reopening of Walt Disney World in June, we have seen a steady increase in attendance at all four theme parks. We have also seen an increase in wait times, some of which are absurd. These increases, along with what seems to be an increase in park reservation availability, have Disney guests speculating. Is Walt Disney World really at 25% capacity? Here is what The Walt Disney Company had to say.
Disney CEO Bob Chapek appeared on CNBC to discuss the reorganization of it’s media and entertainment divisions. During the segment, he was asked about theme park attendance and capacity at Walt Disney World. Chapek stated that Disney has kept attendance at Walt Disney World at 25% of total capacity in lieu of physical distancing requirements. He went on to say that this number has not and would not be increased, and these limitations will exist until the CDC and other health experts indicate that they are no longer necessary.
This seems unlikely to be true. We hope Disney would not be deceitful, but it does seem to be the case. Walt Disney World has denied that park capacity has been increased over the course of the last several months. Instead, they say capacity has been reallocated from resort and theme park guests to Annual Passholders. A couple months ago, this was indeed the case. In July and August, there were a lot of park reservations available for theme park ticket holders and resort guests that went unused. In contrast, AP reservations were unavailable across the board for most days at all four theme parks. The parks were probably operating at 10-15% capacity many days.This was before park reservations were reallocated to APs.
Eventually, Disney reallocated those unused park reservations from the park ticket holder and resort guest catagories over to the annual passholder category. This adjustment led to the 25% capacity being fulfilled. If Walt Disney World is at 25% of capacity now, that would show true when we look at the park reservation system. However, there have been dates in September and October when some parks were unavailable for all three categories of guests, and then suddenly became available. Is that a reallocation, or a refill? Sorry, I know we all hated those math problems growing up but if you have zero park reservations in a basket, you can’t put any park reservations into another basket, no matter how fast the train is leaving the station.
If we believe Disney, how do we then begin to translate what is actually happening in the parks? Well for starters, a lot of things are not open. Many restaurants, stores, shows, meet & greets, and more still remain closed. Some rides, such as the people mover, are not even operational currently. These would have absorbed some of the crowd and dispersed guests throughout the parks instead of corralling them into limited offerings, and thus less space. In a fully operational park, all those offerings would be factored in to determine a park’s normal capacity, but must be excluded now. This would account for why, at such limited capacity, the parks appear to be so busy.
Also, attractions are operating at a lower output of hourly performance. This is due to health and safety precautions such as cleaning and social distancing on rides. This is also the case for restaurants, stores, and more. This means that even what is open has a lower occupancy than normal. Last, when the parks first reopened, they were filled mostly by annual passholders. Passholders are less likely to wait in long lines as they know they can come back a different day. Once more resort guests and ticket holders started to enter the park, the more the demand grew. In short, the parks are not operating at normal. So the 25% is being pitted against the parks new, less efficient operating capability. Walt Disney World has reopened more restaurants and shops in recent weeks, even extended park hours to help absorb the crowds. Yet along side these changes, Disney Park Pass availability also seems to increase.
It’s unclear why Walt Disney World would deny that park capacity limits have been increased. Rumors speculate that it is for shareholders. Others believe it is to make guests feel safe to visit. One thing is certain, more guests are entering the parks this month than in July, August, or even September. Wait times and attendance are up across the board. While there are always inconsistencies between posted and actual wait times, both are still up and have continued to increase. Crowd levels and wait times have not remained steady. They have gone up and will likely continue to go up. Eventually, there will not be enough space to accommodate physical distancing. It is possible that point has already been reached.
Here’s the bottom line. The parks have not felt like 25% for a month or more. There are ridiculous lines to get on rides, as well as into stores and quick service dining. Often, it’s hard to determine where the lines begin. If Disney is claiming that the increase in wait times is actually due to the 25% capacity being reached, why does reopening more stores, restaurants, etc. not absorb the crowds more evenly? Also, if it is true, how are park reservations continuing to be added? What are your thoughts about the 25% capacity at Walt Disney World? Leave a comment below or contact us on the “Contact Us” page.